Prediction Markets

Prediction markets on the T4 platform are binary-outcome instruments that settle at either 0 or 1 (expressed as a price). This page explains how to interpret settlement messages so your application can correctly determine the outcome of a prediction market trade.

Unlike traditional futures contracts, prediction market instruments resolve to one of two discrete values at expiration:

• 1 – The event occurred; the “Yes” side wins.
• 0 – The event did not occur; the “No” side wins.

When a prediction market settles, the T4 platform generates a synthetic order update on the opposite side of your position at the settlement price. Your application should watch for this message to determine whether a held position resolved in or out of the money.

At market expiration, T4 will evaluate the outcome and issue a closing order update for each open position. The message will always be:

• Side – Opposite of your open position (long positions receive a sell; short positions receive a buy).
• Price – Either 0 (lost) or 1 (won), expressed in the instrument's native price format. See System Price Format.
• Order Type – [TBD – settlement order type tag/value]
• Quantity – Equal to your open position size.

Your application should identify a settlement message by checking for the following combination of fields in an order update:

1. The instrument is a prediction market type. See Market Data & Definitions for how to identify prediction market instruments.
2. The order update represents a closing fill (opposite side of the open position).
3. Price is exactly 0 or 1.
4. Order type is [TBD].

Settlement is communicated via the standard order update message on the Trading API WebSocket feed. Subscribe to the account feed and watch for order updates matching the criteria above.

For full message field definitions see Message Reference and Order Routing.

The following is an example order update received when a long position of 1 contract settles in the money.

// [TBD -- WebSocket order update JSON/Protobuf example]
// Fields to highlight:
//   side:       Sell
//   price:      1
//   order_type: [TBD settlement type]
//   qty:        1
//   status:     [TBD]

// [TBD -- WebSocket order update JSON/Protobuf example]
// Fields to highlight:
//   side:       Sell
//   price:      0
//   order_type: [TBD settlement type]
//   qty:        1
//   status:     [TBD]

// [TBD -- WebSocket order update JSON/Protobuf example]
// Fields to highlight:
//   side:       Buy
//   price:      0
//   order_type: [TBD settlement type]
//   qty:        1
//   status:     [TBD]

Settlement is communicated via an Execution Report (tag 35=8) on the FIX session. The report will reflect the closing fill at the settlement price.

For full FIX tag definitions see FIX API.

[TBD -- FIX Execution Report example message]
8=FIX.4.2|35=8|49=[SenderCompID]|56=[TargetCompID]|
54=2|44=1|40=[TBD]|32=1|39=[TBD]|150=[TBD]|55=[Symbol]|10=[checksum]

[TBD -- FIX Execution Report example message]
8=FIX.4.2|35=8|49=[SenderCompID]|56=[TargetCompID]|
54=2|44=0|40=[TBD]|32=1|39=[TBD]|150=[TBD]|55=[Symbol]|10=[checksum]

[TBD -- FIX Execution Report example message]
8=FIX.4.2|35=8|49=[SenderCompID]|56=[TargetCompID]|
54=1|44=0|40=[TBD]|32=1|39=[TBD]|150=[TBD]|55=[Symbol]|10=[checksum]

Settlement P&L for a prediction market position is straightforward:

• P&L per contract = (Settlement Price - Entry Price) * Contract Multiplier * Quantity
• For a long at entry price 0.60 settling at 1: (1 - 0.60) * [multiplier] * qty = profit
• For a long at entry price 0.60 settling at 0: (0 - 0.60) * [multiplier] * qty = loss

• Order Routing -- WebSocket
• Account Feed
• Market Data & Definitions
• FIX API
• System Price Format
• Instruments API