Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets on the T4 platform are binary-outcome instruments that settle at either 0 or 1 (expressed as a price). This page explains how to interpret settlement messages so your application can correctly determine the outcome of a prediction market trade.

Overview

Unlike traditional futures contracts, prediction market instruments resolve to one of two discrete values at expiration:

1 – The event occurred; the “Yes” side wins.
0 – The event did not occur; the “No” side wins.

When a prediction market settles, the T4 platform generates a synthetic order update on the opposite side of your position at the settlement price. Your application should watch for this message to determine whether a held position resolved in or out of the money.

Settlement Mechanics

How Settlement Works

At market expiration, T4 will evaluate the outcome and issue a closing order update for each open position. The message will always be:

Side – Opposite of your open position (long positions receive a sell; short positions receive a buy).
Price – Either 0 (lost) or 1 (won), expressed in the instrument's native price format. See System Price Format.
Order Type – [TBD – settlement order type tag/value]
Quantity – Equal to your open position size.

Outcome Matrix

Your Position	Settlement Price	Outcome
Long	1	Won – event occurred
Long	0	Lost – event did not occur
Short	1	Lost – event occurred
Short	0	Won – event did not occur

Identifying a Settlement Message

Your application should identify a settlement message by checking for the following combination of fields in an order update:

The instrument is a prediction market type. See Market Data & Definitions for how to identify prediction market instruments.
The order update represents a closing fill (opposite side of the open position).
Price is exactly 0 or 1.
Order type is [TBD].

Note: Settlement messages are generated by the platform and do not represent a resting order in the book. They will not appear in the order book feed and should be treated as system-generated close events.

FIX API

Settlement is communicated via an Execution Report (tag 35=8) on the FIX session. The report will reflect the closing fill at the settlement price.

For full FIX tag definitions see FIX API.

Key FIX Tags

Tag	Field Name	Settlement Value
1	Account	Account holding the position being settled
8	BeginString	FIX protocol version in use
9	BodyLength	Number of bytes in message body
10	CheckSum	Three-digit checksum for message validation
11	ClOrdID	Client-assigned order identifier for the settlement order
14	CumQty	Cumulative quantity filled so far
17	ExecID	Unique identifier for this execution
21	HandlInst	Order handling instruction (automated, no intervention)
31	LastPx	Price of the last fill; 0 or 1 for settlement
32	LastQty	Position size being closed
34	MsgSeqNum	Sequence number of this message in the session
35	MsgType	8 (Execution Report)
37	OrderID	Identifier assigned by broker/exchange for the settlement order
38	OrderQty	Total quantity of the settlement order
39	OrdStatus	Order Status
40	OrdType	Order Type
44	Price	0 or 1
48	SecurityID	Identifier for the underlying contract/instrument
49	SenderCompID	Identifier of the sending firm/system
50	SenderSubID	Sub-identifier of the sending system
52	SendingTime	Timestamp the message was sent
54	Side	Opposite of open position (1=Buy, 2=Sell)
55	Symbol	Prediction market instrument identifier
56	TargetCompID	Identifier of the receiving firm/system
59	TimeInForce	Duration the settlement order remains valid
60	TransactTime	Timestamp of the actual transaction/execution
97	LocateReqd	Whether a locate was required (relevant for short positions)
107	SecurityDesc	Name of the contract
151	LeavesQty	Remaining quantity left to be filled (0 once fully settled)
167	SecurityType	Type of instrument (e.g., option) being settled
200	MaturityMonthYear	Contract expiration month/year
201	PutOrCall	Indicates whether contract is a put or call
204	CustOrderCapacity	Capacity in which the order was entered (customer/firm)
207	SecurityExchange	Exchange where the contract is listed/settled
447	PartyIDSource	Source/type of identifier used for the party
448	PartyID	Identifier of the party involved in settlement (e.g., administrator)
452	PartyRole	Role of the identified party in the settlement process
453	NoPartyIDs	Number of party ID entries included in the message

Example: Won (Long Position, Settles at 1)

<< 8 : 1=ExampleAccount| 8=FIX.4.2 | 9=451 | 10=180 | 11=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854 | 14=1 | 17=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854_0_T | 21=1 | 31=0 | 32=1 | 34=70 | 35=8 | 37=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854 | 38=1 | 39=2 | 48=Contract Ticker | 49=test | 50=T4FIX | 52=20260827-15:15:45.148 | 54=2 | 55=Market | 56=TradeBook | 59=0 | 60=20260827-15:15:45.147 | 97=Y | 107=Example Contract Name | 150=F | 151=0 | 167=OPT | 200=202608 | 201=1 | 204=0 | 207=Exchange Name | 447=D | 448=Administrator | 452=44 | 453=1 |
[9=451|35=8] EXECUTION: Market **SELL 1@1** | Order=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854 | Filled=1/1@0 | Remaining=0 | Status=Filled

Example: Lost (Long Position, Settles at 0)

<< 8 : 1=ExampleAccount| 8=FIX.4.2 | 9=451 | 10=180 | 11=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854 | 14=1 | 17=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854_0_T | 21=1 | 31=0 | 32=1 | 34=70 | 35=8 | 37=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854 | 38=1 | 39=2 | 48=Contract Ticker | 49=test | 50=T4FIX | 52=20260827-15:15:45.148 | 54=2 | 55=Market | 56=TradeBook | 59=0 | 60=20260827-15:15:45.147 | 97=Y | 107=Example Contract Name | 150=F | 151=0 | 167=OPT | 200=202608 | 201=1 | 204=0 | 207=Exchange Name | 447=D | 448=Administrator | 452=44 | 453=1 |
[9=451|35=8] EXECUTION: Market **SELL 1@0** | Order=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854 | Filled=1/1@0 | Remaining=0 | Status=Filled

Example: Won (Short Position, Settles at 0)

<< 8 : 1=ExampleAccount| 8=FIX.4.2 | 9=451 | 10=180 | 11=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854 | 14=1 | 17=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854_0_T | 21=1 | 31=0 | 32=1 | 34=70 | 35=8 | 37=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854 | 38=1 | 39=2 | 48=Contract Ticker | 49=test | 50=T4FIX | 52=20260827-15:15:45.148 | 54=2 | 55=Market | 56=TradeBook | 59=0 | 60=20260827-15:15:45.147 | 97=Y | 107=Example Contract Name | 150=F | 151=0 | 167=OPT | 200=202608 | 201=1 | 204=0 | 207=Exchange Name | 447=D | 448=Administrator | 452=44 | 453=1 |
[9=451|35=8] EXECUTION: Market **BUY 1@0** | Order=CB7ED23B-1D2F-4652-BE77-DF16DB3ED854 | Filled=1/1@0 | Remaining=0 | Status=Filled

P&L Calculation

Settlement P&L for a prediction market position is straightforward:

P&L per contract = (Settlement Price - Entry Price) * Contract Multiplier * Quantity
For a long at entry price 0.60 settling at 1: (1 - 0.60) * [multiplier] * qty = profit
For a long at entry price 0.60 settling at 0: (0 - 0.60) * [multiplier] * qty = loss

Note: Confirm the contract multiplier for each prediction market instrument via the Instruments API.

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