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--- developers:predictionmarkets [2026/04/29 19:45] – created chad
+++ developers:predictionmarkets [2026/04/29 19:55] (current) – chad
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-Comin soon
+====== THIS PAGE IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION ======
+====== Prediction Markets ======
+Prediction markets on the T4 platform are binary-outcome instruments that settle at either **0** or **1** (expressed as a price). This page explains how to interpret settlement messages so your application can correctly determine the outcome of a prediction market trade.
+===== Overview =====
+Unlike traditional futures contracts, prediction market instruments resolve to one of two discrete values at expiration:
+  * **1** -- The event occurred; the "Yes" side wins.
+  * **0** -- The event did not occur; the "No" side wins.
+When a prediction market settles, the T4 platform generates a synthetic order update on the **opposite side** of your position at the settlement price. Your application should watch for this message to determine whether a held position resolved in or out of the money.
+===== Settlement Mechanics =====
+==== How Settlement Works ====
+At market expiration, T4 will evaluate the outcome and issue a closing order update for each open position. The message will always be:
+  * **Side** -- Opposite of your open position (long positions receive a sell; short positions receive a buy).
+  * **Price** -- Either **0** (lost) or **1** (won), expressed in the instrument's native price format. See [[developers:systempricing|System Price Format]].
+  * **Order Type** -- ''[TBD -- settlement order type tag/value]''
+  * **Quantity** -- Equal to your open position size.
+==== Outcome Matrix ====
+^ Your Position ^ Settlement Price ^ Outcome ^
+| Long           | 1                | Won -- event occurred |
+| Long           | 0                | Lost -- event did not occur |
+| Short          | 1                | Lost -- event occurred |
+| Short          | 0                | Won -- event did not occur |
+===== Identifying a Settlement Message =====
+Your application should identify a settlement message by checking for the following combination of fields in an order update:
+  - The instrument is a prediction market type. See [[developers:websocket:markets|Market Data & Definitions]] for how to identify prediction market instruments.
+  - The order update represents a closing fill (opposite side of the open position).
+  - Price is exactly **0** or **1**.
+  - Order type is ''[TBD]''.
+<WRAP callout>
+**Note:** Settlement messages are generated by the platform and do not represent a resting order in the book. They will not appear in the order book feed and should be treated as system-generated close events.
+</WRAP>
+===== WebSocket API =====
+Settlement is communicated via the standard order update message on the Trading API WebSocket feed. Subscribe to the account feed and watch for order updates matching the criteria above.
+For full message field definitions see [[developers:websocket:messages|Message Reference]] and [[developers:websocket:orders|Order Routing]].
+==== Example: Won (Long Position, Settles at 1) ====
+The following is an example order update received when a long position of 1 contract settles in the money.
+<code javascript>
+// [TBD -- WebSocket order update JSON/Protobuf example]
+// Fields to highlight:
+//   side:       Sell
+//   price:      1
+//   order_type: [TBD settlement type]
+//   qty:        1
+//   status:     [TBD]
+</code>
+==== Example: Lost (Long Position, Settles at 0) ====
+<code javascript>
+// [TBD -- WebSocket order update JSON/Protobuf example]
+// Fields to highlight:
+//   side:       Sell
+//   price:      0
+//   order_type: [TBD settlement type]
+//   qty:        1
+//   status:     [TBD]
+</code>
+==== Example: Won (Short Position, Settles at 0) ====
+<code javascript>
+// [TBD -- WebSocket order update JSON/Protobuf example]
+// Fields to highlight:
+//   side:       Buy
+//   price:      0
+//   order_type: [TBD settlement type]
+//   qty:        1
+//   status:     [TBD]
+</code>
+===== FIX API =====
+Settlement is communicated via an **Execution Report (tag 35=8)** on the FIX session. The report will reflect the closing fill at the settlement price.
+For full FIX tag definitions see [[developers:fixapi:start|FIX API]].
+==== Key FIX Tags ====
+^ Tag ^ Field Name   ^ Settlement Value ^
+| 35  | MsgType      | 8 (Execution Report) |
+| 39  | OrdStatus    | [TBD] |
+| 54  | Side         | Opposite of open position (1=Buy, 2=Sell) |
+| 44  | Price        | 0 or 1 |
+| 40  | OrdType      | [TBD -- settlement order type] |
+| 32  | LastQty      | Position size being closed |
+| 150 | ExecType     | [TBD] |
+| 55  | Symbol       | Prediction market instrument identifier |
+==== Example: Won (Long Position, Settles at 1) ====
+<code>
+[TBD -- FIX Execution Report example message]
+=FIX.4.2|35=8|49=[SenderCompID]|56=[TargetCompID]|
+=2|44=1|40=[TBD]|32=1|39=[TBD]|150=[TBD]|55=[Symbol]|10=[checksum]
+</code>
+==== Example: Lost (Long Position, Settles at 0) ====
+<code>
+[TBD -- FIX Execution Report example message]
+=FIX.4.2|35=8|49=[SenderCompID]|56=[TargetCompID]|
+=2|44=0|40=[TBD]|32=1|39=[TBD]|150=[TBD]|55=[Symbol]|10=[checksum]
+</code>
+==== Example: Won (Short Position, Settles at 0) ====
+<code>
+[TBD -- FIX Execution Report example message]
+=FIX.4.2|35=8|49=[SenderCompID]|56=[TargetCompID]|
+=1|44=0|40=[TBD]|32=1|39=[TBD]|150=[TBD]|55=[Symbol]|10=[checksum]
+</code>
+===== P&L Calculation =====
+Settlement P&L for a prediction market position is straightforward:
+  * **P&L per contract** = (Settlement Price - Entry Price) * Contract Multiplier * Quantity
+  * For a long at entry price 0.60 settling at 1: (1 - 0.60) * [multiplier] * qty = profit
+  * For a long at entry price 0.60 settling at 0: (0 - 0.60) * [multiplier] * qty = loss
+<WRAP callout>
+**Note:** Confirm the contract multiplier for each prediction market instrument via the [[developers:markets|Instruments API]].
+</WRAP>